Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP022021 210416 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :      8.80    134.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     99.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     98.00            VF
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    117.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        39.8  39.3  34.4  35.6  46.5  39.9  54.4  49.8  U  U  U  U VU  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   37.0  34.0  34.0  39.0  74.0 101.0  79.0  67.0  U  U  U  U  N  F  N  N
 Potential [kt]         90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  89.3  84.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   141.0 141.0 104.0 129.0  98.0 122.0  87.0 109.0 VF VF  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  73.0  71.0  72.0  66.0  63.0  56.0  59.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   6.0   7.0  17.0  12.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       55.6%       16.4%       36.0%
 25kt / 24h       55.6%       50.1%       52.8%
 30kt / 24h       40.7%       45.0%       42.8%
 35kt / 24h       40.2%       45.0%       42.6%
 40kt / 24h       39.7%       40.2%       40.0%
 45kt / 36h       26.3%       19.3%       22.8%
 55kt / 36h        6.9%        6.3%        6.6%
 55kt / 48h        7.9%        9.5%        8.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.8%        2.5%        1.7%
 65kt / 72h        2.6%        1.4%        2.0%