Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP022021 210416 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :      9.20    133.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     96.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     79.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    112.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        38.5  34.9  37.4  33.7  40.2  50.6  58.8  54.4  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   75.0  74.0  77.0  78.0  95.0 102.0  96.0  97.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 Potential [kt]         90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  87.0  84.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   142.0 104.0 129.0  94.0 103.0 100.0 104.0  77.0 VF  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  72.0  71.0  66.0  64.0  59.0  58.0  58.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0   0.0   4.0   9.0  17.0  11.0  32.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       41.7%       13.8%       27.8%
 25kt / 24h       55.9%       47.1%       51.5%
 30kt / 24h       40.4%       39.3%       39.8%
 35kt / 24h       32.4%       39.3%       35.8%
 40kt / 24h       30.7%       33.5%       32.1%
 45kt / 36h       26.3%       15.7%       21.0%
 55kt / 36h        7.4%        4.6%        6.0%
 55kt / 48h        9.2%        7.9%        8.6%
 70kt / 48h        2.4%        1.7%        2.0%
 65kt / 72h        8.9%        1.2%        5.0%