Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP022021 210419 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.30    126.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   125.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   125.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     99.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     99.00            VF
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    112.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.8  13.5  17.8  16.6  20.2  20.3  20.5  24.2  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   69.0  62.0  58.0  53.0  41.0  34.0  26.0  21.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         34.6  34.6  32.3  30.1  25.7  30.1  34.6  27.9 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    56.0  46.0  37.0  41.0  42.0  63.0  49.0  65.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  69.0  66.0  65.0  63.0  61.0  59.0  58.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0   1.0   1.0   2.0   0.0   1.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       10.5%        4.7%        7.6%
 25kt / 24h        7.0%        6.7%        6.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%