Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP022021 210419 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.80    126.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   120.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   120.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     99.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     98.00            VF
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    112.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.7  14.7  18.7  19.9  24.4  33.5  37.6  37.6  F  F  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   52.0  47.0  41.0  36.0  28.0  20.0   6.0   4.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         32.9  32.9  30.7  28.6  28.6  26.5  16.6   9.4 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    71.0  54.0  34.0  42.0  23.0  22.0  57.0  42.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  69.0  66.0  66.0  66.0  61.0  61.0  65.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   2.0   1.0   1.0  12.0  10.0  26.0   7.0  N  N  N  N  U  U VU  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.7%        2.1%        2.9%
 25kt / 24h        1.8%        3.0%        2.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%