Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP022021 210420 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.40    126.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   115.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     99.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     98.00            VF
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    119.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.6  13.0  20.6  29.5  39.3  46.8  48.9  61.9  F  F  N  N  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   40.0  36.0  31.0  28.0  21.0   7.0   5.0   4.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         33.6  33.6  31.5  33.6  31.5  21.6  16.2   9.3 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    59.0  23.0  30.0  25.0  17.0  31.0  48.0  60.0  N  U  N  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  68.0  67.0  67.0  65.0  69.0  73.0  75.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   1.0   2.0  20.0  12.0  46.0   0.0  10.0  N  N  N VU  U VU  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        4.0%        2.6%        3.3%
 25kt / 24h        1.2%        2.7%        1.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%