Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP022021 210420 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.90    126.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   115.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     99.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     97.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    123.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.1  20.6  29.6  33.9  41.4  48.0  60.2  63.4  F  N  N  U VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   72.0  67.0  59.0  52.0  32.0  19.0   9.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         29.4  31.5  31.5  31.5  21.6  16.2   9.3   1.5 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    23.0  29.0  25.0  37.0  29.0  61.0  71.0 124.0  U  N  U  N  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  71.0  72.0  71.0  65.0  66.0  66.0  73.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   3.0  19.0  11.0  26.0  14.0   4.0   0.0  N  N VU  U VU  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        9.0%        3.7%        6.3%
 25kt / 24h        2.5%        2.9%        2.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%