Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP022021 210420 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.50    125.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   115.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     95.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     86.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    118.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.6  21.6  28.9  34.9  45.0  42.7  51.5  58.2  F  N  N  U VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   29.0  26.0  23.0  17.0   1.0   3.0   4.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         29.4  31.5  31.5  29.4  18.0  14.4   9.3  -5.6 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -3.0   6.0  13.0   0.0  26.0  40.0  89.0 107.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  65.0  62.0  61.0  61.0  64.0  66.0  62.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0  13.0  15.0  22.0  46.0   9.0   6.0  -4.0  N  U  U VU VU  U  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        4.6%        2.2%        3.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        1.5%        1.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%