Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP022021 210420 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.00    125.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   120.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   120.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     98.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     93.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    121.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.6  28.9  35.2  40.5  41.0  50.2  57.7  59.2  N  N  U  U VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   58.0  53.0  39.0  30.0  19.0   2.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         26.5  26.5  24.4  18.5  13.0   6.0   1.1 -13.3 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     6.0  13.0   0.0  15.0  51.0  62.0  94.0 139.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  F VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  68.0  65.0  63.0  67.0  68.0  67.0  55.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  14.0  15.0  22.0  32.0  20.0  10.0   3.0  -1.0  U  U VU VU VU  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        8.8%        0.0%        4.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons