Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP022021 210421 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.10    124.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   115.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     94.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     77.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    128.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.9  41.2  45.0  41.9  50.3  55.0  50.0  46.5  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   38.0  30.0  16.0  18.0   9.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         25.5  19.8  14.4  12.7   9.3   3.0  -5.6  -5.6 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    22.0  17.0  13.0  27.0  70.0 108.0  73.0  18.0  U  U  U  U  N  F  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  61.0  62.0  62.0  67.0  68.0  55.0  43.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  13.0  25.0  30.0  17.0  14.0  -2.0   1.0 -17.0  U VU VU  U  U  N  N VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.6%        0.0%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons