Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP022021 210422 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.60    125.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   100.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     95.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     52.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    107.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        36.3  43.0  51.6  54.1  67.3  52.0  47.5  48.9  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    1.0   2.0   5.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   2.0  13.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         31.2  27.7  24.3  19.6 -15.0 -16.7  27.7  36.6 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    53.0  41.0  44.0  53.0   1.0  54.0 -40.0   7.0  N  N  N  N  U  N VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  68.0  68.0  70.0  61.0  50.0  46.0  46.0  N  N  N  N  N  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  15.0  12.0  20.0   4.0  -5.0   1.0 -12.0  -1.0  U  U VU  N  F  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons