Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP022021 210422 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.80    126.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     51.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     25.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     99.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        53.1  59.9  63.2  63.1  64.4  61.8  61.2  58.6 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    3.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   8.0  15.0  20.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         37.7  28.6  14.3  -2.6  -4.2  46.2  53.5  57.4  U VU VU VU VU  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    71.0  74.0  95.0  -7.0   1.0  19.0   3.0   6.0  N  N  F  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  68.0  66.0  61.0  55.0  56.0  57.0  58.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  17.0  14.0 -12.0 -27.0 -18.0 -35.0 -41.0 -23.0  U  U  F VF VF VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons