Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP022021 210424 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.20    132.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     79.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        54.7  50.0  48.5  60.0  75.3  87.0  94.2 107.9 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    4.0   2.0   9.0   5.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         84.3  89.4  93.0  87.7  86.0  65.4  72.2  65.4  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -19.0  -1.0 -12.0  -4.0  53.0  97.0   5.0   5.0  U  U  U  U  N  F  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   46.0  45.0  48.0  46.0  45.0  38.0  32.0  32.0 VU VU  U VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -7.0  -6.0  -8.0  -9.0 -20.0   7.0  -5.0 -61.0  F  F  F  F VF  N  F VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons