Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP022021 210424 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.70    134.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     74.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        48.1  48.6  58.2  64.5  78.9  80.8 115.4 111.4 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    8.0  10.0  11.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         89.4  93.0  87.7  79.6  65.4  73.6  52.7  35.4  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -1.0 -12.0  -4.0  10.0  78.0  98.0  -3.0  -1.0  U  U  U  U  N  F  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   47.0  48.0  49.0  50.0  45.0  41.0  33.0  32.0 VU  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0 -12.0  -9.0 -11.0 -28.0 -36.0 -36.0 -87.0  F  F  F  F VF VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons