Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP022021 210425 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.70    136.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     72.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        60.9  62.7  69.5  81.6  86.9  82.9  82.9  82.9 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    7.0   7.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         89.4  84.3  82.7  50.7  31.4  18.1  18.1  18.1  N  N  N  U VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -14.0 -30.0  -3.0  47.0  99.0  68.0  68.0  68.0  U VU  U  N  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  49.0  54.0  52.0  52.0  48.0  48.0  48.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -21.0 -27.0 -27.0 -62.0 -49.0-134.0-134.0-134.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons