Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP032021 210513 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :      7.50    126.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      3.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      1.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     47.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.8  22.3  20.2  21.8  24.8  18.7  18.5  18.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   8.0  29.0  25.0  26.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         79.4  60.7  72.9  99.4 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  N  U  U  N  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -47.0 -20.0   6.0  22.0   3.0  -9.0 -13.0 -13.0 VU VU  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  68.0  68.0  68.0  68.0  68.0  70.0  70.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   2.0   2.0   5.0   5.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.9%        0.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        1.6%        0.8%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons