Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP032021 210514 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :      7.60    125.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     15.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      5.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     51.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.1  22.8  23.9  21.0  16.8  16.8  16.8  16.8  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   61.0  13.0  25.0  29.0  28.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        113.5 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    14.0   7.0  21.0  13.0 -21.0 -21.0 -21.0 -21.0  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  67.0  68.0  67.0  62.0  62.0  62.0  62.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   2.0  -1.0  -1.0  -2.0  -2.0  -2.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.1%        1.9%        1.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        4.6%        2.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.1%        0.5%
 55kt / 48h        0.5%        2.4%        1.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.2%        1.6%        0.9%
 65kt / 72h        1.4%        6.4%        3.9%