Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP032021 210514 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :      7.80    123.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     50.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     33.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     61.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.9  23.2  20.6  19.1  20.8  20.7  21.2  29.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   54.0  58.0  35.0  43.0  61.0  60.0  63.0  62.0  N  N  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 127.9 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  N  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     7.0  21.0  13.0  -1.0 -16.0 -10.0  -3.0  16.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  68.0  70.0  65.0  65.0  64.0  67.0  70.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0  -2.0  -2.0  -2.0   0.0   2.0   2.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        1.0%        0.6%
 25kt / 24h        1.4%       10.3%        5.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        3.0%        1.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        3.0%        1.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.2%        2.2%        1.2%
 45kt / 36h        1.6%       22.0%       11.8%
 55kt / 36h        1.3%        8.8%        5.0%
 55kt / 48h        8.4%       10.5%        9.4%
 70kt / 48h        4.6%        9.5%        7.1%
 65kt / 72h       12.6%       23.4%       18.0%