Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP032021 210514 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :      8.00    122.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     32.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     26.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     59.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.1  22.1  17.3  17.1  17.4  19.6  20.0  21.2  N  N  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   28.0  32.0  31.0  25.0  28.0  32.0  28.0  23.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 127.9 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 134.6  F  F  N  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    15.0   0.0  -6.0 -17.0 -25.0 -33.0  -3.0 -12.0  U  U  U  U VU VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  70.0  67.0  64.0  65.0  63.0  64.0  61.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -4.0  -3.0  -6.0  -3.0  -1.0   0.0  -1.0  N  F  N  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.9%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        0.9%        9.0%        4.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        2.8%        1.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        2.5%        1.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.2%        2.3%        1.3%
 45kt / 36h        1.2%       16.6%        8.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.9%        6.0%        3.5%
 55kt / 48h        4.9%        8.4%        6.6%
 70kt / 48h        1.4%        6.5%        3.9%
 65kt / 72h        4.2%       15.4%        9.8%