Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP032021 210514 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :      8.40    121.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     44.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.1  17.5  16.9  18.8  19.1  19.2  19.0  19.0  N  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   65.0  46.0  44.0  57.0  60.0  62.0  55.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     0.0  -6.0 -17.0 -20.0 -15.0   1.0 -11.0 -11.0  U  U  U VU  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  65.0  64.0  64.0  65.0  64.0  64.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -3.0  -5.0  -3.0  -3.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  F  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        0.9%        0.6%
 25kt / 24h        0.8%        8.7%        4.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.6%        3.1%        1.9%
 35kt / 24h        0.6%        2.2%        1.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.6%        2.2%        1.4%
 45kt / 36h        2.1%       14.7%        8.4%
 55kt / 36h        1.7%        4.1%        2.9%
 55kt / 48h        8.5%        8.7%        8.6%
 70kt / 48h        4.9%        5.8%        5.4%
 65kt / 72h       12.8%       18.2%       15.5%