Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP042021 210529 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :      6.40    134.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     80.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     69.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    115.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.7  32.9  35.6  35.8  38.2  37.6  39.3  42.2  N  U  U  U  U  U  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   96.0  88.0  85.0  83.0  86.0  87.0  96.0 123.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  F  F
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   138.0 146.0 112.0  84.0  23.0  59.0  46.0  31.0 VF VF  F  N  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  75.0  76.0  72.0  72.0  75.0  72.0  74.0  F  F  F  N  N  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -2.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.2%        4.5%        3.4%
 25kt / 24h       21.6%       37.1%       29.3%
 30kt / 24h        7.4%       14.9%       11.2%
 35kt / 24h        2.0%       14.9%        8.5%
 40kt / 24h        1.2%       10.6%        5.9%
 45kt / 36h        9.6%       41.0%       25.3%
 55kt / 36h        4.4%       17.0%       10.7%
 55kt / 48h       20.4%       16.3%       18.4%
 70kt / 48h       10.6%       15.7%       13.2%
 65kt / 72h       38.0%       29.6%       33.8%