Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP042021 210530 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :      6.60    133.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     58.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     42.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    117.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.6  31.1  33.2  36.8  32.9  42.0  46.3  48.3  N  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   57.0  53.0  47.0  43.0  55.0  85.0 110.0 122.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   149.0 130.0 123.0  45.0   3.0  46.0  40.0   6.0 VF  F  F  N  U  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  67.0  64.0  60.0  62.0  62.0  65.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.4%        4.1%        3.7%
 25kt / 24h       15.8%       28.1%       21.9%
 30kt / 24h        6.6%       10.8%        8.7%
 35kt / 24h        2.6%       10.8%        6.7%
 40kt / 24h        1.5%        9.5%        5.5%
 45kt / 36h        6.4%       30.3%       18.3%
 55kt / 36h        2.7%       11.5%        7.1%
 55kt / 48h        7.7%       10.0%        8.9%
 70kt / 48h        4.4%        8.7%        6.6%
 65kt / 72h       16.3%       12.4%       14.4%