Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP042021 210530 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :      7.50    131.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     70.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     63.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     87.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        36.2  36.1  31.4  30.6  35.5  33.6  37.5  35.8  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   87.0  87.0  84.0  83.0  99.0  60.0  69.0  80.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 119.3 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    33.0  23.0  19.0  46.0  36.0  -8.0  -1.0   4.0  N  U  U  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  62.0  61.0  62.0  64.0  64.0  61.0  60.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -7.0  -8.0  -4.0  -4.0  -7.0  -4.0  -2.0  -4.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       13.9%        8.2%       11.0%
 25kt / 24h       30.2%       38.9%       34.6%
 30kt / 24h       18.1%       21.1%       19.6%
 35kt / 24h       10.6%       21.1%       15.8%
 40kt / 24h       10.5%       17.5%       14.0%
 45kt / 36h       16.2%       35.1%       25.6%
 55kt / 36h        8.9%       15.4%       12.2%
 55kt / 48h       11.5%       11.9%       11.7%
 70kt / 48h        5.7%        9.7%        7.7%
 65kt / 72h        8.8%       11.9%       10.3%