Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP042021 210531 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :      7.90    130.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     48.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     43.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     73.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.9  34.3  33.2  36.9  37.6  36.7  38.5  39.1  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   56.0  64.0  68.0  67.0  53.0   6.0  80.0  63.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 114.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    46.0  10.0  47.0  65.0  16.0  46.0  26.0  26.0  N  U  N  N  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  64.0  60.0  60.0  62.0  61.0  57.0  54.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -2.0  -2.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0   0.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       12.4%        5.4%        8.9%
 25kt / 24h       16.8%       22.6%       19.7%
 30kt / 24h       11.7%        9.8%       10.7%
 35kt / 24h       10.8%        9.8%       10.3%
 40kt / 24h       10.8%        9.5%       10.1%
 45kt / 36h        8.2%       15.4%       11.8%
 55kt / 36h        3.6%        4.6%        4.1%
 55kt / 48h        2.1%        4.4%        3.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.5%        2.4%        1.4%
 65kt / 72h        2.0%        3.4%        2.7%