Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP042021 210601 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.10    127.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     27.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     24.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     80.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.0  35.2  34.0  35.1  36.1  33.2  35.5  35.6  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   43.0  15.0   9.0  13.0  12.0  73.0  52.0  54.0  N  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        125.0 117.3 110.7 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    37.0  18.0  35.0  42.0  14.0  23.0  32.0  40.0  N  U  N  N  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  62.0  62.0  62.0  61.0  60.0  60.0  63.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -4.0  -1.0  -1.0   0.0  -3.0   3.0  10.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.3%        1.8%        1.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.4%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        1.2%        0.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.8%        1.0%        0.9%