Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP042021 210601 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.10    126.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     22.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     21.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     82.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.2  33.0  34.0  34.6  32.0  32.6  32.9  37.1  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   88.0  65.0  73.0  85.0 102.0 110.0 109.0 100.0  F  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    34.0  32.0  45.0  33.0   2.0  31.0  36.0  70.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  62.0  60.0  61.0  62.0  62.0  65.0  68.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -7.0  -4.0  -3.0  -6.0  -3.0  -5.0  -2.0   2.0  F  F  N  F  N  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        2.8%        1.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        2.3%        1.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        2.8%        2.0%        2.4%
 70kt / 48h        1.3%        0.6%        1.0%
 65kt / 72h       32.0%        4.9%       18.5%