Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP042021 210601 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.80    125.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     10.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      9.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     79.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.0  35.2  34.3  36.1  31.1  28.0  29.6  24.5  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   65.0  12.0   8.0 102.0 111.0  56.0  58.0  44.0  N  U  U  F  F  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    27.0  39.0  43.0   7.0   4.0  60.0  28.0  45.0  U  N  N  U  U  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  66.0  59.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  62.0  66.0  N  N  U  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -3.0  -6.0  -6.0  -7.0  -7.0 -12.0  -6.0  F  N  F  F  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        1.2%        0.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        1.3%        0.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.2%        1.2%        0.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.4%        0.3%
 65kt / 72h       10.6%        3.6%        7.1%