Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP042021 210602 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.30    121.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     52.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     34.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    103.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        38.1  34.6  32.4  31.5  35.7  32.5  20.1  29.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   85.0 105.0 109.0  83.0  51.0  49.0  62.0  32.0  N  F  F  N  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 125.1  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     6.0  11.0  19.0   7.0  29.0  53.0  33.0  44.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  61.0  56.0  56.0  61.0  73.0  73.0  65.0  N  N  U  U  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -4.0   0.0   3.0   6.0   0.0   7.0  -1.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        0.8%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        2.0%        8.2%        5.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.6%        2.1%        1.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        2.0%        1.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.4%        0.7%
 45kt / 36h        0.5%        7.9%        4.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.2%        1.9%        1.1%
 55kt / 48h        2.3%        3.6%        3.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.9%        2.0%        1.4%
 65kt / 72h       12.6%        9.9%       11.3%