Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP042021 210602 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.80    120.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     56.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     42.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    114.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        38.3  37.6  37.0  38.7  39.7  34.3  24.3  55.3  U  U  U  U  U  U  N VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  102.0  56.0  53.0  47.0  44.0  39.0  31.0   5.0  F  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  92.7  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    12.0  24.0  29.0  23.0  71.0  36.0  49.0  39.0  U  U  N  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  61.0  57.0  57.0  58.0  67.0  67.0  57.0  N  N  U  U  U  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -8.0  -3.0  -1.0   0.0  -7.0  -6.0  25.0  -9.0  F  N  N  N  F  F VU  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.7%        4.6%        2.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        1.1%        0.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        1.1%        0.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.7%        0.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        4.6%        2.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.9%        0.5%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        1.8%        0.9%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        1.0%        0.5%
 65kt / 72h        0.7%        2.0%        1.4%