Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP042021 210603 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.30    119.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     41.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     35.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    108.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.2  35.0  35.0  35.0  35.0  35.0  35.0  35.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   50.0  44.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    25.0  18.0  18.0  18.0  18.0  18.0  18.0  18.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  58.0  58.0  58.0  58.0  58.0  58.0  58.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -7.0  -5.0  -5.0  -5.0  -5.0  -5.0  -5.0  -5.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.9%        1.2%        1.1%
 25kt / 24h        1.1%        6.7%        3.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.4%        1.9%        1.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.3%        1.9%        1.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.7%        0.8%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        5.6%        2.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.3%        0.7%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        1.8%        0.9%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        1.8%        0.9%