Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP042021 210604 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.00    121.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      8.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      4.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    117.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.5  26.7  38.4  65.1  74.8  83.4  97.7 114.0  N  N  U VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   42.0  18.0  10.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        140.0 134.6 109.8  94.6  69.8  48.4  49.7  35.9  F  F  N  N  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    21.0  47.0  93.0  93.0  92.0  63.0  34.0   6.0  U  N  F  F  F  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  65.0  59.0  53.0  49.0  44.0  41.0  37.0  N  N  U  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -11.0  23.0   0.0   0.0  51.0  73.0  35.0 -30.0  F VU  N  N VU VU VU VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%