Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP042021 210604 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.10    122.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      4.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      1.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     87.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.6  34.0  53.2  62.8  75.8  91.6  91.6  91.6  N  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   26.0  12.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        134.3 112.4  89.6  86.5  55.0  37.8  37.8  37.8  F  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    47.0  93.0  96.0  89.0  72.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  N  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  60.0  53.0  49.0  48.0  41.0  41.0  41.0  N  N  U  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  23.0   6.0   2.0  32.0  63.0  68.0  68.0  68.0 VU  N  N VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.4%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons