Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP042021 210605 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.70    123.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     50.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     39.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    103.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        37.2  56.5  63.0  77.1  85.2  93.2 104.7 100.7  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   10.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        105.5  84.6  66.7  52.8  35.2  17.3  10.9   7.5  N  N  U  U  U VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    99.0  93.0  70.0  63.0  22.0   0.0   7.0  18.0  F  F  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  55.0  51.0  49.0  43.0  40.0  34.0  37.0  N  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -1.0  18.0  13.0   4.0 -50.0 -23.0   6.0  N  N VU  U  N VF VF  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        0.4%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons