Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP052021 210612 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.50    106.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     18.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     16.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    145.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        37.8  39.3  41.6  42.3  47.1  46.0  44.4  41.0  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   7.0   3.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        113.5  83.0  80.4  77.9 127.9 119.4 113.5 109.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    38.0  12.0 -29.0 -14.0 -19.0 -23.0 -22.0   4.0  N  U VU  U  U VU VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   81.0  79.0  79.0  79.0  76.0  76.0  75.0  77.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0   1.0  12.0  17.0  21.0  -5.0   6.0  -1.0  F  N  U  U VU  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons