Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP062021 210621 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.80    146.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     16.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      7.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     50.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.2  16.0  17.6  16.6  15.7  26.3  31.1  34.6  F  F  F  F  F  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  118.0 120.0 123.0 129.0 138.0 132.0 115.0  91.0  F  F  F VF VF VF  F  F
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    24.0   5.0 -12.0 -12.0  35.0  41.0  39.0  30.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  67.0  66.0  62.0  62.0  64.0  64.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -2.0  -2.0  -8.0  -2.0  -8.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.1%        5.9%        4.5%
 25kt / 24h       16.6%       36.5%       26.5%
 30kt / 24h       11.4%       18.9%       15.1%
 35kt / 24h        5.9%       14.7%       10.3%
 40kt / 24h        5.9%       14.7%       10.3%
 45kt / 36h       28.2%       55.0%       41.6%
 55kt / 36h       26.4%       30.6%       28.5%
 55kt / 48h       51.1%       37.3%       44.2%
 70kt / 48h       34.7%       34.4%       34.5%
 65kt / 72h       62.4%       55.5%       58.9%