Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP062021 210621 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.10    145.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      5.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      1.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     39.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.6  17.6  16.6  15.3  18.2  28.6  38.5  37.9  N  F  F  F  F  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  154.0 163.0 150.0 133.0 128.0 130.0 105.0  78.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF  F  N
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    13.0  23.0  25.0  36.0  43.0  64.0  37.0  21.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  69.0  70.0  68.0  68.0  66.0  67.0  72.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   3.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.5%        2.8%        2.2%
 25kt / 24h       12.3%       26.4%       19.3%
 30kt / 24h        8.1%       11.6%        9.8%
 35kt / 24h        4.8%        8.0%        6.4%
 40kt / 24h        4.8%        8.0%        6.4%
 45kt / 36h       24.1%       38.5%       31.3%
 55kt / 36h       21.4%       15.1%       18.2%
 55kt / 48h       51.1%       27.9%       39.5%
 70kt / 48h       36.4%       20.4%       28.4%
 65kt / 72h       62.4%       36.4%       49.4%