Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP062021 210621 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.60    144.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     17.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     10.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     51.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.1  14.8  14.4  13.3  22.8  32.4  30.2  27.0  F  F  F  F  N  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  124.0 135.0 137.0 128.0 117.0  99.0  51.0  35.0  F VF VF VF  F  F  N  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 118.6  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    18.0  17.0   4.0  -5.0   8.0  38.0  84.0  68.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  69.0  66.0  66.0  65.0  66.0  70.0  70.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   3.0   5.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.8%        4.6%        3.2%
 25kt / 24h       15.2%       35.5%       25.4%
 30kt / 24h        9.7%       17.7%       13.7%
 35kt / 24h        4.4%       13.5%        8.9%
 40kt / 24h        4.4%       13.5%        8.9%
 45kt / 36h       21.6%       44.0%       32.8%
 55kt / 36h       19.9%       19.9%       19.9%
 55kt / 48h       45.3%       24.8%       35.1%
 70kt / 48h       24.7%       17.5%       21.1%
 65kt / 72h       61.6%       33.4%       47.5%