Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP062021 210622 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.30    143.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     32.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     18.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     62.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.8  17.0  20.7  24.2  31.9  38.9  35.8  32.6  N  F  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  139.0 122.0 124.0 134.0 122.0 106.0  74.0  20.0 VF  F  F VF  F  F  N  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 134.3  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    40.0  39.0  39.0  22.0  58.0  44.0  21.0  52.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  65.0  65.0  67.0  67.0  69.0  69.0  69.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0   5.0   8.0   8.0   8.0  14.0  18.0  39.0  U  N  U  U  U  U VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.0%        4.8%        3.4%
 25kt / 24h       16.3%       32.9%       24.6%
 30kt / 24h        9.1%       13.7%       11.4%
 35kt / 24h        2.7%       11.2%        7.0%
 40kt / 24h        2.7%       10.7%        6.7%
 45kt / 36h       17.5%       36.7%       27.1%
 55kt / 36h       13.9%       14.5%       14.2%
 55kt / 48h       38.3%       18.6%       28.5%
 70kt / 48h       24.7%       10.9%       17.8%
 65kt / 72h       57.6%       19.0%       38.3%