Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP062021 210622 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.90    142.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     52.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     47.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     67.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.0  20.2  24.2  27.9  35.9  36.5  34.6  36.2  F  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  139.0 142.0 139.0 134.0 118.0  93.0  61.0  36.0 VF VF VF VF  F  F  N  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 117.9  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    39.0  39.0  22.0  57.0  64.0  19.0  58.0  86.0  N  N  U  N  N  U  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  65.0  67.0  67.0  68.0  69.0  71.0  71.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   8.0   8.0   5.0  12.0  14.0  26.0  48.0  N  U  U  N  U  U VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        7.7%       11.3%        9.5%
 25kt / 24h       34.3%       50.3%       42.3%
 30kt / 24h       19.5%       25.5%       22.5%
 35kt / 24h        9.5%       25.5%       17.5%
 40kt / 24h        9.5%       22.9%       16.2%
 45kt / 36h       26.7%       48.0%       37.4%
 55kt / 36h       20.0%       23.7%       21.9%
 55kt / 48h       40.5%       22.3%       31.4%
 70kt / 48h       24.7%       14.0%       19.3%
 65kt / 72h       51.6%       18.9%       35.3%