Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP062021 210622 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.30    141.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     39.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     29.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     80.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.6  20.6  24.6  26.2  30.4  33.2  30.6  21.8  F  N  N  N  N  U  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  125.0 129.0 125.0 113.0  94.0  55.0  19.0  11.0  F VF  F  F  F  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 129.3 113.6  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    24.0  41.0  61.0  68.0  39.0  46.0  22.0  99.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  U  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  65.0  66.0  66.0  68.0  69.0  69.0  66.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -1.0  -2.0   1.0  -1.0   0.0  -4.0 -48.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        6.1%        8.7%        7.4%
 25kt / 24h       27.3%       42.5%       34.9%
 30kt / 24h       16.3%       19.0%       17.6%
 35kt / 24h        6.0%       19.0%       12.5%
 40kt / 24h        6.0%       18.6%       12.3%
 45kt / 36h       22.4%       41.1%       31.7%
 55kt / 36h       16.4%       18.6%       17.5%
 55kt / 48h       31.2%       20.1%       25.7%
 70kt / 48h       24.6%       14.7%       19.6%
 65kt / 72h       38.5%       27.7%       33.1%