Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP062021 210622 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.60    140.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     36.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     30.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     78.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.0  24.9  25.9  29.1  30.7  35.8  25.1  26.1  N  N  N  N  U  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  140.0 133.0 129.0 120.0  95.0  63.0  40.0  10.0 VF VF VF  F  F  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 129.6 112.4  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    41.0  61.0  68.0  51.0  13.0  57.0  62.0  71.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  67.0  69.0  70.0  74.0  77.0  77.0  78.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -2.0   2.0   2.0  -2.0 -15.0 -24.0 -42.0  N  N  N  N  N VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.8%        4.0%        2.9%
 25kt / 24h       14.3%       27.8%       21.0%
 30kt / 24h        7.1%        9.5%        8.3%
 35kt / 24h        1.7%        8.4%        5.0%
 40kt / 24h        1.7%        7.6%        4.7%
 45kt / 36h       12.3%       28.7%       20.5%
 55kt / 36h        8.2%        9.5%        8.9%
 55kt / 48h       26.7%       13.7%       20.2%
 70kt / 48h       23.0%        9.4%       16.2%
 65kt / 72h       41.8%       28.0%       34.9%