Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP062021 210623 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.10    140.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     63.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     40.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    112.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.7  33.3  34.2  31.6  36.4  37.6  39.8  35.3  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  118.0 103.0  94.0  84.0  49.0  33.0  12.0   0.0  F  F  F  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 115.1 104.4  65.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    44.0  29.0  45.0  20.0  45.0  56.0  51.0  12.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  70.0  73.0  75.0  78.0  74.0  73.0  77.0  N  N  N  F  F  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0  -5.0  -2.0  -1.0 -22.0 -45.0 -67.0 -48.0  F  F  N  N VF VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        4.8%        5.8%        5.3%
 25kt / 24h       17.8%       28.4%       23.1%
 30kt / 24h        9.5%       12.2%       10.9%
 35kt / 24h        4.6%       12.2%        8.4%
 40kt / 24h        1.2%        9.6%        5.4%
 45kt / 36h        7.4%       21.1%       14.3%
 55kt / 36h        3.8%        7.2%        5.5%
 55kt / 48h        7.0%        7.3%        7.1%
 70kt / 48h        3.1%        6.2%        4.6%
 65kt / 72h        1.3%        7.4%        4.4%