Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP062021 210623 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.20    140.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     63.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     48.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    101.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.0  25.0  21.5  18.1  19.5  28.2  31.0  45.1  N  N  N  F  N  N  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   94.0  66.0  33.0  17.0  10.0   9.0   0.0   0.0  F  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 110.7  91.2  57.0  47.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    46.0  36.0  35.0  37.0  61.0   7.0  52.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  70.0  73.0  73.0  70.0  67.0  62.0  69.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   3.0   4.0   6.0   3.0  18.0  13.0  19.0  N  N  N  N  N VU  U VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        5.2%        7.6%        6.4%
 25kt / 24h       19.7%       40.0%       29.8%
 30kt / 24h       10.9%       22.9%       16.9%
 35kt / 24h        5.3%       22.9%       14.1%
 40kt / 24h        2.9%       20.6%       11.8%
 45kt / 36h       11.2%       36.5%       23.8%
 55kt / 36h        6.0%       17.3%       11.6%
 55kt / 48h       10.0%       11.4%       10.7%
 70kt / 48h        4.7%        8.3%        6.5%
 65kt / 72h        0.3%        2.0%        1.2%