Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP062021 210624 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.60    140.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     51.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     23.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    118.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.3  23.2  23.4  26.1  20.2  17.2  27.1  39.6  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   90.0  77.0  56.0  36.0  15.0   8.0  17.0   0.0  F  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 115.7 109.4  66.7  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    49.0  30.0  35.0  25.0  45.0  31.0  26.0 104.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  U  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  69.0  68.0  67.0  65.0  63.0  66.0  74.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  24.0  10.0  19.0  28.0  22.0  14.0  29.0  66.0 VU  U VU VU VU  U VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        1.2%        0.7%
 25kt / 24h        3.2%       11.6%        7.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.9%        3.7%        2.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.4%        3.7%        2.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        2.9%        1.5%
 45kt / 36h        1.9%       11.6%        6.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.6%        3.2%        1.9%
 55kt / 48h        5.0%        7.5%        6.3%
 70kt / 48h        1.6%        2.3%        1.9%
 65kt / 72h        4.6%        2.3%        3.4%