Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP062021 210624 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.30    140.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     30.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     15.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    107.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.4  23.5  26.6  23.3  17.8  17.4  33.1  44.5  N  N  N  N  F  F  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   84.0  70.0  59.0  45.0  35.0  22.0   1.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 112.3 105.7  79.3  47.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    30.0  34.0  24.0  50.0   1.0  64.0  82.0  90.0  N  N  U  N  U  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  68.0  67.0  67.0  62.0  64.0  71.0  78.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  10.0  21.0  30.0  23.0   7.0  15.0  44.0 106.0  U VU VU VU  N  U VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        4.4%        3.7%        4.1%
 25kt / 24h       10.9%       20.2%       15.6%
 30kt / 24h        7.4%        8.8%        8.1%
 35kt / 24h        3.7%        8.8%        6.3%
 40kt / 24h        1.7%        8.8%        5.3%
 45kt / 36h        9.8%       17.9%       13.8%
 55kt / 36h        5.3%        6.3%        5.8%
 55kt / 48h       11.0%       10.7%       10.8%
 70kt / 48h        6.1%        3.7%        4.9%
 65kt / 72h        2.5%        1.1%        1.8%