Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP062021 210625 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.80    139.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     92.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     82.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    114.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.2  18.0  16.9  20.5  32.3  29.1  44.0  54.7  N  F  F  N  U  N VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   25.0  19.0  17.0  15.0  16.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        100.0 100.0 100.0  99.3  85.7  40.4  21.8  15.0  N  N  N  N  N  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    22.0  50.0  -5.0  13.0  31.0 116.0  62.0 108.0  U  N  U  U  N  F  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  66.0  67.0  69.0  73.0  77.0  81.0  76.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0  -2.0   7.0   9.0  -4.0 -14.0   4.0   9.0  N  N  N  U  F VF  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       57.0%       42.5%       49.8%
 25kt / 24h       62.4%       77.0%       69.7%
 30kt / 24h       62.4%       77.0%       69.7%
 35kt / 24h       62.4%       77.0%       69.7%
 40kt / 24h       35.8%       75.6%       55.7%
 45kt / 36h       29.5%       50.9%       40.2%
 55kt / 36h       16.0%       34.5%       25.3%
 55kt / 48h        5.9%        9.9%        7.9%
 70kt / 48h        1.0%        7.0%        4.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%