Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP062021 210625 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.10    139.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     78.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     19.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    113.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.3  17.8  20.3  21.7  36.6  34.7  43.9  63.2  F  F  N  N  U  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   40.0  38.0  25.0  18.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        100.0  99.3  92.3  87.9  53.0  26.7  16.6 -11.6  N  N  N  N  U VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    49.0  -6.0  13.0  43.0  72.0  80.0  98.0  64.0  N  U  U  N  N  N  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  69.0  69.0  73.0  74.0  78.0  80.0  71.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0   3.0  12.0  -3.0   0.0 -11.0 -29.0 -27.0  F  N  U  N  N  F VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       28.3%       31.8%       30.0%
 25kt / 24h       42.4%       57.1%       49.8%
 30kt / 24h       36.5%       54.5%       45.5%
 35kt / 24h       36.5%       54.5%       45.5%
 40kt / 24h       12.1%       53.1%       32.6%
 45kt / 36h        8.1%       19.3%       13.7%
 55kt / 36h        4.2%        8.7%        6.5%
 55kt / 48h        0.3%        1.9%        1.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%