Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP062021 210625 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.00    139.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     52.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     32.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     93.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.0  18.2  21.2  34.8  39.9  49.5  59.5  71.9  F  F  N  U  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   12.0  14.0  20.0  13.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         97.0  92.3  87.9  77.4  33.2  16.6   4.6 -18.9  N  N  N  U VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -45.0   9.0  33.0  54.0 104.0  51.0 104.0 140.0 VU  U  N  N  F  N  F VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  66.0  70.0  73.0  79.0  78.0  70.0  70.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0 -12.0  -9.0 -40.0 -64.0 -65.0 -15.0 -55.0  N  F  F VF VF VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       12.4%       11.4%       11.9%
 25kt / 24h       10.3%       19.3%       14.8%
 30kt / 24h        8.7%       13.2%       10.9%
 35kt / 24h        7.0%       13.2%       10.1%
 40kt / 24h        5.1%       13.2%        9.1%
 45kt / 36h        1.0%        3.3%        2.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.4%        0.9%        0.7%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%