Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP062021 210625 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.70    139.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     70.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     55.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     99.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.9  22.8  29.6  36.7  39.7  47.0  56.9  71.0  F  N  N  U  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   16.0  18.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         90.1  81.5  56.1  39.2  21.8  14.2 -11.8 -18.9  N  N  U  U VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    39.0  54.0  16.0  25.0  55.0  48.0  92.0  88.0  N  N  U  U  N  N  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  71.0  73.0  77.0  78.0  76.0  69.0  69.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -2.0   5.0   8.0  20.0  32.0  16.0   5.0  N  N  N  U VU VU  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        7.5%        6.9%        7.2%
 25kt / 24h        1.9%        5.3%        3.6%
 30kt / 24h        1.2%        2.8%        2.0%
 35kt / 24h        1.2%        2.8%        2.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.6%        1.9%        1.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        1.0%        0.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons