Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP062021 210626 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.20    140.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      2.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    108.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.8  40.3  42.7  41.3  54.9  59.0  60.5  72.4  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         62.9  52.7  42.4  41.6  12.9   8.1   4.5   6.5  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   113.0  93.0  64.0  96.0 122.0 106.0   7.0 -22.0  F  F  N  F  F  F  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  77.0  77.0  75.0  68.0  67.0  59.0  51.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0  13.0  25.0  26.0  28.0   8.0 -54.0 -60.0  U  U VU VU VU  U VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons