Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP062021 210627 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     31.90    142.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     18.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     13.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    161.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        50.4  56.7  64.3  76.1  80.9  95.1  82.7  70.7 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         45.0  45.8  27.7  18.4  15.1  11.5  11.1  11.1  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    95.0 113.0  84.0  55.0  47.0  32.0  97.0 109.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   78.0  73.0  67.0  65.0  61.0  47.0  43.0  48.0  F  N  N  N  N VU VU  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -10.0   8.0  19.0  25.0 -50.0 -11.0  32.0  82.0  F  U VU VU VF  F VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons